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FXON Market Analysis (September 9 to September 15)
The trading week ended September 15 was largely aimless when it came to currency markets, highlighted by jittery dollar swings with a slight depreciative bias.
[September 13] Market retests August low. Will the week's trading close below it?
Today the USDJPY continued its downward trend shortly after the open, hitting a low of 140.89 a little after GMT 02:30. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:10 on September 13), although it is still an event in progress, the price is moving under the low of 141.68 that it was unable to completely break below the day before yesterday.
[September 12] Market temporarily marks a new low for the year, but rebounds promptly. Will it try again?
So far today there has been no clear trend in the USDJPY, which is trading in the 142-yen range. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:30 on September 12), the price did break below the 141.68 that was the bottom in August and that had been the lowest price of the year so far, but it rebounded after forming a long bottom wick.
[September 11] Strong selling pressure temporarily pushes price below August low. CPI to be announced later today.
Today the USDJPY fell sharply in the morning session, and by around GMT 01:30 had marked a low of 141.50. Looking at the daily chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 02:55 on September 11), the lower wick of the candle just barely dipped below the August low of 141.68, but if there is a full-fledged breakout we could see another leg down.
[September 10] With little news to drive the market, the yen reverses direction in the 141-range to rise at a leisurely pace
Partly because today was a so-called "5/10 day" (a date ending in "5" or on a multiple of "10" on which Japanese companies often settle foreign exchange payments), the USDJPY began to rise again, having bottomed at 142.85 not long after GMT 22:30. Shortly after GMT 01:30, it hit a high of 143.54 yen. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on September 10), the price has reversed after marking a low in the upper half of the 141-yen range, but the trend seems to be lacking in momentum.
[September 9] Approaching the low reached after the summer plunge in the yen. The question is how the market will deal with it.
On Friday of last week, the USDJPY was trending downward until around GMT 07:00, but it rebounded and continued to rise as the market waited for the U.S. employment statistics. Those figures were announced at GMT 12:30. The unemployment rate in August improved as expected to 4.2% from 4.3% in July, but August nonfarm payrolls were weak, coming in at 142,000 versus a forecast of 165,000. The figure for the previous month was also revised down significantly from an increase of 114,000 to an increase of 89,000.
Notice of Early Termination of F40EUR Trading on September 6, 2024
We would like to inform you that on September 6, 2024, the trading of F40EUR ended early at 19:30 instead of the usual closing time of 23:00.
FXON Market Analysis (September 2 to September 8)
In the trading week ended September 8th, currency markets saw rapid dollar sell-offs following tepid results in the U.S. jobs report for August. Weakness in the U.S. labor market was highlighted by lower-than-expected nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and downward revisions to June and July data.
Update: Suspension of Rate Feed for Certain Securities Since September 5, 2024
Due to the impact of a large typhoon approaching Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has decided to close for the entire day today. As a result, the rate feed for HSIHKD and Hong Kong stocks will be suspended throughout the day.
[September 6] Downward push begins ahead of employment statistics. Is the market about to return to the 142-yen range?
Today the USDJPY trended down in the morning of the Tokyo session, breaking below 143 at around GMT 05:30. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:30 on September 6), it has fallen to just above the recent low of 142.84.
Suspension of Rate Feed for Certain Stocks Since September 5, 2024
Due to the impact of a major typhoon approaching Hong Kong, trading of HSIHKD and Hong Kong stocks have been suspended starting from 18:35 JST on Thursday, September 5, 2024. Trading still remains unavailable between 09:15 and 12:00 JST on Friday, September 6.
Changes to Trading Hours for DAXEUR from September 6, 2024
We would like to inform you that the Friday trading hours for DAXEUR will change starting on September 6, 2024.
[September 5] Weak JOLTS suggests higher probability of larger interest rate cut at September FOMC
Today the USDJPY hit a low of 143.18 shortly after GMT 23:30, then reversed direction and began to rise. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:55 on September 5), the middle line continues to trend down, indicating strong selling pressure.
[September 4] USDJPY selling gathers strength on the back of comments by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures
Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:10 on September 4), the middle line is trending downward and the price is trading below that, so selling pressure appears to be strengthening on this time scale.
[September 3] Rising market stalls after topping 147 yen, back trading in 146-yen range
Yesterday the USDJPY pulled back after peaking at 146.59 yen shortly after GMT 23:00, but then began to climb again after hitting a low of 145.77 yen not long after GMT 04:00. The rise in price stalled after reaching a high of 147.17 some time after GMT 13:15, and it closed for the day at 146.88.
[September 2] Sideways market breaks to the upside after U.S. personal consumption expenditure figures on Friday. U.S. market is on holiday today
On Friday of last week, trading in the USDJPY was confined to a range between the upper half of the 144-yen zone and the lower half of the 145-yen zone until about GMT 08:00, but it broke above the high of the day at around GMT 10:00 and started to trend upward. Personal consumption expenditures for the U.S. in July were announced at GMT 12:30, with the deflator coming in as forecast at a year-on-year change of 2.5%. The core deflator was 2.6% year on year, a deterioration from the forecast of 2.7%.
FXON Market Analysis (August 26 to September 1)
In the trading week ended September 1, the weakening trend of the dollar paused, and dollar buying regained momentum.
[August 30] Market is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, as it was on the previous day, until the economic indicators to be announced tonight are revealed.
Today the USDJPY exchange rate until GMT 05:00 remained within a range of the high 144 yen to low 145 yen, with no clear direction. As the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is scheduled to be released, it is expected that the market will continue to move without significant changes until then, similar to yesterday.
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[August 29] Market continues to drift, perhaps awaiting the PCE. The question is how it responds to quarterly GDP today
Today the USDJPY rose leisurely during the morning of the Tokyo session, but there was little energy in the movement. With the price trading in a narrow range above 144 yen, the market seems to be treading water ahead of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the U.S. on Friday.