2024.09.06 [September 6] Downward push begins ahead of employment statistics. Is the market about to return to the 142-yen range?

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Recap of previous trading day (September 5)

Yesterday the USDJPY lacked a sense of direction until the New York session, trading in a range-bound market in the 143-yen zone.

The U.S. ADP employment figures for August that were announced at GMT 12:15 were weak, coming in at 99,000 as opposed to forecasts of 145,000, and resulted in the USDJPY falling. However, it bottomed at 142.82 yen, and returned to the 143-yen range.

In addition, the August ISM Services PMI for the U.S. was announced at GMT 14:00. This came in at a fairly positive 51.5 versus expectations of 51.1, but after peaking at a high of 144.22 at around GMT 14:30 the USDJPY's upward momentum stalled, and trading for the day closed at 143.43. The market settled into a mood of waiting for the results of Friday's U.S. employment data.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY trended down in the morning of the Tokyo session, breaking below 143 at around GMT 05:30.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:30 on September 6), it has fallen to just above the recent low of 142.84.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. August Nonfarm payrolls (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. August Unemployment rate
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. August Average hourly earnings (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. August Average hourly earnings (YoY)

Depending on the results for the employment figures, it is certainly possible that we could see the market fall to new lows.

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