2024.09.09 [September 9] Approaching the low reached after the summer plunge in the yen. The question is how the market will deal with it.
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Recap of previous trading day (September 6)
On Friday of last week, the USDJPY was trending downward until around GMT 07:00, but it rebounded and continued to rise as the market waited for the U.S. employment statistics.
Those figures were announced at GMT 12:30. The unemployment rate in August improved as expected to 4.2% from 4.3% in July, but August nonfarm payrolls were weak, coming in at 142,000 versus a forecast of 165,000. The figure for the previous month was also revised down significantly from an increase of 114,000 to an increase of 89,000.
These latest employment statistics seem to have been interpreted by market participants as further signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market. Directly after the announcement the USDJPY reached the 144-yen level, but as concerns about the slowing economy resulted in adjustments to positions the yen was bought back, with the USDJPY falling and continuing to fall, so that by around GMT 15:00 it had hit a low of 141.77. It then bottomed, and trading for the week closed at 142.43 yen.
Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward
Today the USDJPY hit a low of 141.94 straight after the open, but then rebounded and rose so that by around GMT 02:00 it had hit a high of 142.98.
Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 02:55 on September 9), the market is within striking distance of the low of 141.68 set during the plunge in price that took place in early August. The key issue is likely to be whether it can break below this.
(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)
There are no closely watched economic indicators today.
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