2024.08.29 [August 29] Market continues to drift, perhaps awaiting the PCE. The question is how it responds to quarterly GDP today

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Recap of previous trading day (August 28)

Yesterday the USDJPY bottomed at 143.68 in the early morning, then rose to hit a high of 145.03 at around GMT 07:40. The rise in the price paused there for a while before the trend towards the stronger yen resumed, leading to a close for the day of 144.57.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY rose leisurely during the morning of the Tokyo session, but there was little energy in the movement. With the price trading in a narrow range above 144 yen, the market seems to be treading water ahead of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the U.S. on Friday.

A look at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:10 on August 29) confirms the continuation of the horizontal line, centered on the 144.45-yen level, that the market has been drawing over the past few days.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Q2 (revised, % QoQ)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. PCE Price Index, Q2 (revised, % QoQ)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Q2 (revised, % QoQ)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. July Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. July Pending Home Sales (MoM)

Today a number of important economic indicators will be released, headed by quarterly GDP, so there is also a possibility that this will trigger a shift away from the current directionless market.

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