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2024.09.13

[September 13] Market retests August low. Will the week's trading close below it?

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Recap of previous trading day (September 12)

Yesterday the USDJPY continued to trade without direction in the 142-yen range during the Tokyo session, and after reaching a high of 143.04 some time after GMT 07:00 the market came off as if being pushed down by the weight of the higher price.

At GMT 12:30 of the same day the main economic indicators for the U.S. were announced. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August in the U.S. rose slightly by 0.2% month on month compared to forecasts of 0.1%, but worsened a little in year-on-year terms by coming in at 1.7% compared to expectations of 1.8%. The Core PPI also came in with a good month-on-month figure of 0.3% versus a forecast of 0.2%, but on the other hand it undershot the year-on-year forecast of 2.5%, posting a figure of 2.4%.

Initial jobless claims for the U.S. were in line with expectations, but continuing jobless claims were 185,000 versus a forecast of 184,500, which was slightly disappointing. The market's reaction to both figures was limited.

After that the USDJPY traded in the 142-yen range, but shortly after GMT 17:00 it began to fall. Not long after GMT 20:00 the price hit a low of 141.72, and trading for the day closed at 141.80.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY continued its downward trend shortly after the open, hitting a low of 140.89 a little after GMT 02:30.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:10 on September 13), although it is still an event in progress, the price is moving under the low of 141.68 that it was unable to completely break below the day before yesterday. The market's attention will be focused on whether it ends the week completely below this level or not.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 14:00 U.S. September Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary

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