2024.09.12 [September 12] Market temporarily marks a new low for the year, but rebounds promptly. Will it try again?

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Recap of previous trading day (September 11)

Yesterday the USDJPY continued to fall during the Tokyo session, and shortly after GMT 05:00 it hit 140.70, falling below the low for the year. However, this proved to be the bottom from which it rebounded and continued to rise.

At GMT 12:30 the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was announced. The CPI was 0.2% month on month, as expected, whereas the Core CPI figure was 0.3%, slightly better than the 0.2% forecast.

The market reacted to these figures by buying the dollar, and not long after GMT 12:30 the price hit a high of 142.54. Despite subsequently selling off, trading for the day still ended at 142.34.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

So far today there has been no clear trend in the USDJPY, which is trading in the 142-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:30 on September 12), the price did break below the 141.68 that was the bottom in August and that had been the lowest price of the year so far, but it rebounded after forming a long bottom wick.

Attention will be focused on whether enough selling pressure remains for the market to make a second attempt to push down from this level.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI, MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. August Producer Price Index (core PPI excluding food and energy, MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 18:00 U.S. August Monthly Budget Statement

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