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[October 25] Decline Pauses Ahead of Weekend General Election

Today, a "5/10 day" (a date ending in "5" or on a multiple of "10" on which Japanese companies often settle foreign exchange payments), the USDJPY rose from 151.57 marked around GMT 00:00 to a high of 152.10 shortly after GMT 01:30 before falling back. As of GMT 04:00, it is trading in the upper half of the 151-yen range. With the general election approaching on October 27, the market is in a wait-and-see mode. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on October 25), the decline from the previous day petered out. It is trading closer to the middle line, with contracting bands indicating no clear directional momentum.

[October 24] Correction after upward surge? Take a view based on the shape of the Bollinger Bands

Today the USDJPY chart shows the price hitting 152.82 yen around GMT 22:00, then fluctuating as the market trended down. After Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki made statements that pushed the market towards a weaker yen, the USDJPY was trading in the lower half of the 152-yen range some time after GMT 04:30. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:30 on October 24), the angle of the middle line is approaching the horizontal and the bands that had been widening are now contracting, indicating that the market has become trendless over the period shown.

[October 23] Market moves easily past previous day's high to trade in upper half of 151-yen range

Today the USDJPY broke above the high of the previous day some time after GMT 00:00 and gathered upward momentum, so that shortly after GMT 05:00 it was trading in the 152-yen range. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:05 on October 23), today's upward trend in the price can be seen to have resulted in a widening of the bands that had begun to tighten.

[October 22] USDJPY briefly reaches the 151-yen range during the second half of the Tokyo session

During the early stages of today's Tokyo session, the USDJPY declined in leisurely fashion, but shortly after GMT 01:00 it hit a low of 150.49 yen and began to increase, surpassing the high of the previous day. Not long after GMT 04:00, the price briefly exceeded 151 yen. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:40 on October 22), the price is trading above the upwardly trending middle line and mostly above the +1 standard deviation, confirming the upward swing of the market.

[October 21] The week starts by inheriting Friday's downward trend

Today in the Tokyo session, falling below the level of the previous trading day and setting a new low of 149.08 not long after GMT 03:30.

FXON Market Analysis (October 14 to October 20)

The trading week ended October 20 was one of general favorability toward dollar strength. In particular, the market recognized strength in the U.S. economy, including from September retail sales exceeding expectations, and expectations on a significant rate cut by U.S. monetary authorities receded.

[October 18] After briefly breaking above 150 yen the market trades on either side of it

Today the USDJPY trended downward for the first half of the Tokyo session, falling below the 150-yen level. Looking at the daily chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:35 on October 18), despite having broken above the round number of 150 yen, trading has straddled this level rather than accelerating upward.

[October 17] Marking time just below 150 yen. Aim to follow the direction in which it breaks

In today's Tokyo session, the USDJPY has continued the downward trend of the last phase of the previous trading day, hitting a low of 149.24 some time after GMT 02:30. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:35 on October 17), the price is moving sideways in a triangle formation just below the crucial 150-yen level, forming higher lows and lower highs. The basic approach here would be to move in the direction in which the price breaks.

[October 16] Be careful of the price breaking out to the downside of the sideways triangle formation

Today in the first half of the Tokyo session, the USDJPY if anything trended downwards from the lower end of the 149-range, entering the 148-yen range for the time being. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:45 on October 16), the second push down came to an end just after the price entered the 148-yen range.

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[October 15] The market explores a full-fledged challenge on the 150-yen level

In the first half of today's Tokyo session, the USDJPY entered a downward trend following yesterday's rebound. Shortly after GMT 01:30 the yen hit a low of 149.44. Looking at the daily chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:30 on October 15), the close has broken above the previous high of 149.38 on August 15, but the price has been unable to surpass 150 yen.

[October 14] Can the market overcome resistance around the 149.40 level?

This week the USDJPY gapped down slightly at the open and started trading at 148.96 yen. This gap was then quickly filled, and the price began to rise. Looking at the daily chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:35 on October 14), the increase in the price is just about being held back by resistance at 149.38.

FXON Market Analysis (October 7 to October 13)

In the most recent trading week ended October 13, the dollar continued its bull run on the foreign exchange market partly due to expectations on U.S. monetary policy, despite more smoke than fire in the government's policies.

[October 11] Market fluctuates violently in directionless trading after the CPI announcement. Also look out for the PPI later today

Today the USDJPY has drifted in a range-bound market in the 148-yen zone, with movement contained within the high and low of the previous day. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:20 on October 11), the Bollinger Bands have tightened and the angle of the middle line is gradually becoming less steep.

[October 10] USDJPY rises gradually in a continuation of the previous day's trading. Be wary of major moves driven by the CPI

Movement in the USDJPY was sluggish in the first half of the Tokyo session today, but a rise in the price between GMT 04:00 and GMT 05:00 led to the previous high being exceeded and a new high of 149.54 being set. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:15 on October 10), it has described a gentle curve resembling a cup-and-saucer pattern, and there is the possibility of a full-fledged breakout to the upside.

[October 9] Market begins to rise after drifting down. The question is whether volatility will increase after the FOMC meeting minutes and the CPI

So far today the USDJPY has been making new highs and new lows as the amplitude of its fluctuations has increased. At about GMT 05:00 it rose sharply, temporarily reaching 148.50. A look at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:10 on October 9) confirms that the downward drift of the previous day has come to an end and that the direction of the price has switched to a gradual rise.

[October 8] Market continues to drift down after post-employment statistics surge

So far today trading in the USDJPY it has lacked momentum, with the price moving in the 147- to 148-range. A look at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on October 8) shows that, since the surge in the market that was driven by the employment statistics on Friday of last week, the price has fallen slowly but steadily.

[October 7] After soaring on the back of strong employment statistics on Friday, the market is gradually correcting downwards

Today the USDJPY marked a high of 149.13 directly after the open, and subsequently came off. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:45 on October 7), the price is in a correction phase after rising sharply, has fallen below the +1 standard deviation of the Bollinger Bands, and is now approaching the middle line.

FXON Market Analysis (September 30 to October 6)

In the currency exchange markets during the trading week ended October 6, the dollar strengthened against the yen, with the USDJPY rising sharply from above 141 to as far as above 149.

[October 4] Market looks likely to continue to drift down as it waits for employment figures

Today the USDJPY has been trading without energy and in the first half of the Tokyo session it drifted downward, trading in the lower half of the 146-yen range shortly after GMT 04:00. It seems highly likely that this sluggish movement will continue until the employment statistics later today.

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