2024.10.25 [October 25] Decline Pauses Ahead of Weekend General Election
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Recap of previous trading day (October 24)
Yesterday the USDJPY marked 152.83 directly after the open but began trending lower, marking lower highs and lows before dipping below 152 yen shortly after GMT 08:30. The fall paused around GMT 11:00.
At GMT 12:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week were reported at 227,000, better than the market expectation of 242,000. This prompted dollar-buying in the market, briefly pushing the USDJPY back into the 152-yen range. However, the pair resumed its decline, hitting a low of 151.55 around GMT 17:30 and closing the day at 151.83.
Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward
Today, a "5/10 day" (a date ending in "5" or on a multiple of "10" on which Japanese companies often settle foreign exchange payments), the USDJPY rose from 151.57 marked around GMT 00:00 to a high of 152.10 shortly after GMT 01:30 before falling back. As of GMT 04:00, it is trading in the upper half of the 151-yen range. With the general election approaching on October 27, the market is in a wait-and-see mode.
Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on October 25), the decline from the previous day petered out. It is trading closer to the middle line, with contracting bands indicating no clear directional momentum.
(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)
Today's main economic indicators are as follows.
- GMT 12:30 U.S. September durable goods orders (MoM)
- GMT 12:30 U.S. September durable goods orders excluding transportation (MoM)
- GMT 14:00 U.S. October Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final
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