2024.10.04 [October 4] Market looks likely to continue to drift down as it waits for employment figures

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Recap of previous trading day (October 3)

Yesterday the USDJPY hit a low of 146.28 straight after the open then rose to reach a high of 147.23 at around GMT 01:00, but subsequently the market became directionless and traded in a tight range.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI was announced at GMT 14:00, coming in at a bullish 54.9 against a forecast of 51.7. The market responded by buying dollars and briefly broke above the 147-yen level, but then fell back and closed for the day at 146.90.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY has been trading without energy and in the first half of the Tokyo session it drifted downward, trading in the lower half of the 146-yen range shortly after GMT 04:00.

It seems highly likely that this sluggish movement will continue until the employment statistics later today.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on October 4), we can see that the price has again fallen back below the high of Friday of last week, which it had exceeded temporarily.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. September Nonfarm payrolls (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. September Unemployment rate
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. September Average hourly earnings (MoM, YoY)

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