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FXON Market Analysis (February 17 to February 23)
In the foreign exchange market for the week that ended on February 23rd, the yen strengthened against the dollar as the market increased expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would raise interest rates, helped by stronger-than-expected Japan's GDP.
[February 21] Sharp rebound from below 150 yen. Market continues to swing on officials' comments.
Today the USDJPY touched a low of 149.27 around GMT 23:30 (on February 20), then sharply rebounded following comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Around GMT 02:30, it reached a high of 150.73. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on February 21), while the sharp rebound temporarily exceeded +2 standard deviations, unless the price breaks above the recent high of 150.73 again, the downward trend appears likely to continue.
[February 20] USDJPY falls below 151 again as yen buying continues
Today the USDJPY has fallen below 151 as yen buying dominates due to uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations for the Ukraine war and expectations of additional Bank of Japan rate hikes. As of GMT 04:00, it is trading at 150.36. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on February 20), it has broken below the February 7 low of 150.93. The downward trend appears likely to continue.
Apology for the system failure occurred on February 19,2025
On February 19, 2024, from 14:43 to approximately 15:27 (GMT) , trading on certain symbols was temporarily interrupted. However, the issue has been resolved, and rate distribution has returned to normal.
[February 19] Yen selling somewhat dominant, USDJPY returns to 152 level
Today the USDJPY was focused on the speech by hawkish Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata. However, there were no surprises, and after hitting a low of 151.75 around GMT 01:30 and a high of 152.31 around GMT 02:00, the pair has been trading in the upper 151-yen range.
[February 18] USDJPY remains firm as expectations grow for U.S. rate cut delay
Today the USDJPY saw buying activity around GMT 23:00 (on February 17) after U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller commented that "a pause in rate cuts would be desirable." Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:40, February 18), the price touched -2 standard deviations before reversing upward, but stopped just short of 152. If it breaks above this level, an upward trend may develop.
[February 17] Japanese GDP shows strength, USDJPY falls below 152, almost completely erasing last week's gains
Today the USDJPY dropped to a low of 151.50 around GMT 02:30 after Japan's Q4 GDP data released at GMT 23:50 came in strong, reviving expectations for an early Bank of Japan rate hike.
FXON Market Analysis (February 10 to February 16)
In the foreign exchange market for the week that ended on February 16th, the dollar initially strengthened against the yen on a series of tariff-related news.
[February 14] USDJPY weakens below 153 as U.S.-China reciprocal tariffs implementation delayed
Today the USDJPY reached a high of 153.15 around GMT 23:30 (on February 13), and hit a low of 152.44 after GMT 01:00. As of GMT 04:00, it is trading in the upper 152-yen range. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:30, February 14), it has retraced its earlier gains and is trading below the middle line.
[February 13] JPY selling after CPI takes a breather near 155
Today the USDJPY has been trading mainly in the lower 154-yen range without clear direction until GMT 04:00. Looking at the 1-hour chart (as of GMT 04:00 on February 13), prices continue to trade above the middle line, and the upward trend appears likely to continue. If it breaks above 155 yen, the next target appears to be 158, which was reached in January.
[February 12] Signs of yen weakening as U.S. interest rate expected to remain unchanged. USDJPY moves into 153-yen range.
Today buying activity increased due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments from the previous day indicating that U.S. interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, reaching a high of 153.69 as of GMT 04:00. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on February 12), it has broken out of its range, with 155 appearing to be the next target. The upward trend appears likely to continue.
[February 11] Limited market factors keep USDJPY trading range-bound around 152 yen
Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on February 11), range-bound trading continues with the band width narrowing. It is difficult to determine a clear direction, so it seems that the best strategy here would be to move in the direction in which the price breaks. If the range-bound period is prolonged, it could lead to momentum once a direction is established.
[February 10] USDJPY finds support at 151 yen. Market moves into a lull.
As a so-called "5/10 day" (a date ending in "5" or on a multiple of "10" on which Japanese companies often settle foreign exchange payments), today the USDJPY rose directly after the open, reaching a high of 152.21 around GMT 02:30. As of GMT 04:00, it is trading around 152.0.
FXON Market Analysis (February 3 to February 9)
In the foreign exchange market for the week that ended on February 9th, the yen strengthened against the dollar as President Donald Trump's tariff policy rattled the market and speculation of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) increased. As a result, the USDJPY briefly dipped into the 150 yen range.
[February 7] Yen buying pauses in the 151 range ahead of U.S. employment statistics
Today the USDJPY touched a low of 150.95 shortly after GMT 00:00, pressured by Bank of Japan rate hike speculation and caution ahead of the Japan-U.S. summit meeting. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:50 on February 7), while it has broken above -1 standard deviation, the middle line continues to trend downward. The downward trend appears likely to continue.
[February 6] USDJPY drops below 152 on rising Bank of Japan rate hike expectations
Today the USDJPY touched a high of 152.75 around GMT 23:30 (on February 5), then turned downward, reaching a low of 151.81 around GMT 01:30. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato's comments and Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura's hawkish stance are strengthening expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:30 on February 6), the downward bandwalk continues, and it appears poised to test the critical level of 150. The downward trend appears likely to continue.
[February 5] USDJPY enters 153 range amid risk aversion and Bank of Japan rate hike speculation
Today the USDJPY marked a high of 154.46 directly after opening, then declined. Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:10 on February 5), the width of the Bollinger Bands is expanding, indicating a downward trend along the Bollinger Bands. If it breaks below 153, there is potential for movement targeting 150.
[February 4] Global economic uncertainty rises over tariffs. Markets show signs of indecision.
Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on February 4), it has been moving significantly up and down between around 154.00 and just under 156.00, making it difficult to grasp a clear direction. It seems that the best strategy here would be to move in the direction in which the price breaks out of this range.
Changes to Trading Hours on February 17, 2025
The trading hours of HKEX have changed on Monday, February 17, 2025.
GMMA Indicator
The GMMA Indicator is based on the GMMA, which combines 12 moving averages to detect trend developments and other patterns. It provides entry and exit signals when certain conditions are met.
