In the foreign exchange market for the week that ended on November 1st, the dollar continued to strengthen against the yen following major monetary policy events in both countries. The USDJPY reached the 154 yen range. The dollar also strengthened against other major currencies. Both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD declined.

October 27 (Mon)

Although the Nikkei 225 Index reached the 50,000 yen milestone for the first time, it had no impact on the foreign currency market. The USDJPY hovered around the 153.0 yen level. Meanwhile, the EURUSD rose to the 1.165 range and the GBPUSD climbed to touch the 1.335 range.

October 28 (Tue)

During his visit to Japan, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent apparently offered a soft warning against the weak yen. Consequently, traders preferred the yen, and the USDJPY fell to 151.76.

The EURUSD remained within the 1.166 range throughout the day. Meanwhile, financial concerns in the U.K. pushed the GBPUSD down to the 1.324 range.

October 29 (Wed)

After hitting an intraday low of 151.53 yen at the start of the daily trading session, the USDJPY rebounded as the dollar was bought back. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the U.S. interest rate by 0.25%. However, following the post-meeting press conference by Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chair Jerome Powell, the market lowered speculation that the FRB would make another rate cut in December. Consequently, the USDJPY rose to 153.06 yen.

As the dollar strengthened, the EURUSD fell to the 1.157 range and the GBPUSD extended its decline to the 1.314 range.

October 30 (Thu)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its Monetary Policy Meeting. At the post-meeting press conference, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda did not mention an early rate hike. As the monetary policy events in the U.S. and Japan concluded, traders sold the yen, pushing the USDJPY up to 154.44 yen.

As the dollar continued to strengthen, the EURUSD extended its decline to the 1.154 range, and the GBPUSD fell to 1.311.

October 31 (Fri)

Following the previous day's surge, the USDJPY fell to 153.65 yen as traders adjusted their positions. However, the pair subsequently rebounded to 154.41 yen and closed the weekly trading session by hovering around this level.

The EURUSD fell to the 1.152 range after a period of minimal fluctuation. The GBPUSD temporarily fell below the 1.31 level.

November 3 (Mon)

• Closure: Japan (national holiday)
• 15:00 U.S.: October ISM Manufacturing PMI

November 4 (Tue)

• 23:50 Japan: Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting

November 5 (Wed)

• 13:15 U.S.: October ADP National Employment Report
• 15:00 U.S.: October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (composite)

November 6 (Thu)

• 12:00 U.K.: Bank of England (BOE) policy interest rate announcement
• 12:00 U.K.: Minutes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting

November 7 (Fri)

• 13:30 U.S.: October change in nonfarm payrolls
• 13:30 U.S.: October unemployment rate
• 13:30 U.S.: October average hourly earnings

The following currency pair charts are analyzed using an overlay of the ±1σ and ±2σ standard deviation Bollinger Bands, with a 20-period moving average.

The release of some important economic data has been postponed due to the ongoing partial shutdown of the U.S. government. As a result, there is a lack of fresh news in the market. Meanwhile, it seems difficult for the USDJPY to extend the uptick, as warnings were issued about a weak yen after the pair reached around 154 yen. However, if the U.S. employment figures released on November 7th are positive, the dollar will strengthen.

Next is an analysis of the USDJPY daily chart.

After a period of minimal movement, the pair showed a strong uptrend. However, the pair experienced selling pressure upon reaching the +2σ level. Nevertheless, it is safe to say this uptrend will likely continue unless the pair falls below 151.53 yen, where the current rally started last Wednesday.

We continue with an analysis of the USDJPY weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, the pair broke above the upper limit of the range. Also, a long lower wick on the latest candlestick indicates an increase in buying pressure. In the medium term, the pair will target 158.87 yen. Although the pair may experience a temporary decline, it is safe to say that this uptrend will likely continue as long as the pair stays above 151.53 yen.

Although the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the status quo of the current monetary policy, the direction of its future policy remains unclear. While the FRB is not expected to cut rates in December, the dollar is therefore expected to continue strengthening, which will affect the market.

Next is an analysis of the EURUSD daily chart.

Last week, the pair fell below the bottom of the narrow range. Meanwhile, the middle line is moving downwards. Unless the pair reaches the +1σ level, it is safe to say that the downtrend will likely continue.

We continue with an analysis of the EURUSD weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, the pair declined and touched -2σ, indicating a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. If the pair falls below 1.1391, the downtrend will intensify.

The GBPUSD concluded last week's trading session amid mounting selling pressure on the pound due to financial concerns in the U.K. and speculation of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BOE). At its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on November 6th, the central bank is expected to decide to keep its policy interest rate unchanged. However, there is a little possibility of an unexpected announcement of a rate cut.

Next is an analysis of the GBPUSD daily chart.

As the downtrend continues, the pair is making lower highs and lower lows. Although the buying pressure on the pound temporarily increased after falling below -2σ, it is safe to say that the downtrend will likely continue.

We continue with an analysis of the GBPUSD weekly chart.

Last week, the pair temporarily fell below the 1.3141 level, which had been considered a support line. If the decline continues, the pair will first target 1.30, and in the medium term, it may fall to around 1.2708.