Earlier in the week that ended on September 28th, the foreign exchange market saw minor fluctuations as traders squared their books. Later, strong U.S. economic figures strengthened the dollar against major currencies. The USDJPY rose to just below 150 yen.

September 22 (Mon)

After reaching the 148.4 yen range at the end of the previous week, the USDJPY declined to the 147.6 yen range as traders sold dollars to settle their books.

Meanwhile, the EURUSD rebounded to the 1.18 range, and the GBPUSD recovered to the 1.35 range.

September 23 (Tue)

Earlier, the market was quiet as traders waited for the speech by Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chair Jerome Powell. However, the outcome was almost in line with the FOMC statement and had little impact on the market.

The EURUSD fluctuated within the 1.18 range, and the GBPUSD hovered within the 1.35 range.

September 24 (Wed)

Amid a lack of news, the USDJPY rose to the 148.9 yen range. As the dollar strengthened, the EURUSD fell to the 1.172 range and the GBPUSD hit the 1.342 range.

September 25 (Thu)

The April-June U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised upward, indicating the steadiness of U.S. consumer spending. As a result, the USDJPY rose to the 149.9 yen range. Conversely, the euro and the pound weakened against the dollar. EURUSD fell to the 1.165 range, and the GBPUSD declined to the 1.33 range.

September 26 (Fri)

The USDJPY fluctuated within the upper 149 yen range. However, after failing to break above 150 yen, it closed the weekly trading session in the mid-149 yen range.

The EURUSD rebounded to the 1.17 range. The GBPUSD reached the 1.34 range during the daily trading session.

September 30 (Tue)

• 06:00 U.K.: April-June quarterly real Gross Domestic Product (revised GDP)
• 23:50 Japan: Bank of Japan (BOJ) July-September Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises (Tankan)

October 1 (Wed)

• 09:00 Europe: September Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (preliminary HICP)
• 09:00 Europe: September Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (preliminary HICP core index)
• 13:15 U.S.: September ADP National Employment Report
• 14:00 U.S.: September ISM Manufacturing PMI (composite)

October 3 (Fri)

• 12:30 U.S.: September change in nonfarm payrolls
• 12:30 U.S.: September unemployment rate
• 12:30 U.S.: September average hourly earnings
• 14:00 U.S.: September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (composite)

The following currency pair charts are analyzed using an overlay of the ±1σ and ±2σ standard deviation Bollinger Bands, with a 20-period moving average.

The market will focus on U.S. economic figures, such as the September ISM Manufacturing PMI on October 1st and the U.S. employment figures for September on October 3rd. It is also important to watch the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election. If support for Sanae Takaichi, who is considered expansionist, increases, the yen will be sold, and the USDJPY may surpass 150 yen and continue to rise.

Next is an analysis of the USDJPY daily chart.

Last week, the pair broke above the upper limit of the range, approaching 150 yen. However, instead of breaking above that level, the pair was pushed down to close the weekly trading session. If it succeeds in breaking above 150 yen, the pair will easily reach 151 yen. It is safe to say that the uptrend will likely continue.

We continue with an analysis of the USDJPY weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, the pair broke above +1σ and touched the upper limit of the band last week. If the pair clearly breaks above 150 yen, it will advance to 151 yen.

The market is focusing on the release of the September HICP on October 1st. If it shows a positive outcome, the euro will strengthen against the dollar in anticipation of a pause in rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Also, depending on the result of U.S. employment data and other economic figures, the market may increase the possibility of the October rate cuts in the U.S., contributing to the boost of the euro.

Next is an analysis of the EURUSD daily chart.

Earlier last week, the pair broke above +2σ, but then offset the rally and fell back into the range. Nevertheless, as long as the pair remains above the 1.1659 level, where the most recent rally began, it is safe to say that the uptrend will likely continue.

We continue with an analysis of the EURUSD weekly chart.

The latest candlestick on the weekly chart has a long upper wick, indicating that the pair struggled to advance. However, the upward middle line indicates that the euro is strengthening against the dollar. It is safe to say that the uptrend will likely continue. Therefore, it would be better to make sure to buy on dips.

The lingering concern about U.K. fiscal instability will prevent traders from opting for a risk-on strategy and buying the pound. This week, the behavior of the dollar will dominate the market as U.S. employment figures and other U.S. economic figures are released.

Next is an analysis of the GBPUSD daily chart.

The pair has been fluctuating within the range, so it has failed to provide a clear direction. If it continues to fall below the 1.3141 level, it may enter a downtrend.

We continue with an analysis of the GBPUSD weekly chart.

The pair has been fluctuating within this range for weeks, and the bandwidth is narrowing. In a deadlocked market like this one, once the pair moves up or down, the subsequent uptrend or downtrend will likely have higher momentum. If the pair breaks above the 1.3726 level, it will be safe to conclude that the pair has entered an uptrend. Conversely, if the pair falls below 1.3141, a downtrend will likely begin.