In the foreign currency market for the week that ended on September 7th, the USDJPY rose to the 149 yen range on September 5th. However, weak U.S. employment figures and comments from key figures at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) pushed the pair down to the upper 146 yen range. The EURUSD fluctuated steadily. GBPUSD plummeted earlier but then rose to erase the plunge to close the weekly trading session.

September 1 (Mon)

The market lost direction as the New York market was closed for Labor Day. The USDJPY hovered in the lower 147 yen range. The EURUSD reached the 1.173 range but then stalled. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD moved steadily within the 1.354 range.

September 2 (Tue)

Ryozo Himino, vice governor of the BOJ, expressed reluctance to increase interest rates. Also, Hiroshi Moriyama, secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), reportedly decided to resign. These reports triggered a sell-off of the yen, boosting the USDJPY to the 148.9 yen range.

As the dollar strengthened, the EURUSD dropped to the 1.165 range, while the GBPUSD fell to the 1.334 range.

September 3 (Wed)

During the London trading session, the USDJPY reached the 149.1 yen range. However, the lower-than-expected number of U.S. job openings in July fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) would cut rates in September. Consequently, the pair fell below the 148 yen level.

The EURUSD fell to the 1.160 range but then rebounded to the 1.168 range. The GBPUSD rebounded to the 1.354 range after falling to the 1.333 range.

September 4 (Thu)

Following the previous day's decline, the dollar was bought back, helping the USDJPY recover to the 148.7 yen range. However, the lower-than-expected figures of the ADP National Employment Report pushed the pair down to the 147.7 yen range. Nevertheless, the market reacted less to the report as the announcement of U.S. employment figures approached the following day.

Meanwhile, although the euro weakened against the dollar, the EURUSD stayed in the upper 1.16 range. The GBPUSD hovered in the mid-1.34 range.

September 5 (Fri)

The much-anticipated U.S. employment figures fell short of analysts' expectations. As the slowdown of the U.S. job market became apparent, the probability that the FRB will cut interest rates three times by the end of the year increased, and the dollar sell-off intensified. During trading hours, the USDJPY plummeted from the 148 yen range to the upper 146 yen range.

The weakening dollar lifted the EURUSD to nearly the 1.176 level and the GBPUSD to the 1.355 range.

September 7 (Sun)

• 23:50 Japan: April-June Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (revised GDP)

September 11 (Thu)

• 12:15 Europe: European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council policy interest rate announcement
• 12:30 U.S.: August Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• 12:30 U.S.: August Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index)
• 12:45 Europe: Regular press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde

September 12 (Fri)

• 06:00 U.K.: July Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP, month-by-month)

The following currency pair charts are analyzed using an overlay of the ±1σ and ±2σ standard deviation Bollinger Bands, with a 20-period moving average.

Although U.S. employment figures for August fell short of expectations, the market has already anticipated a rate cut in September. Now, the market is focusing on what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will indicate regarding the post-October rate cut at its meeting on September 16th and 17th. Conversely, as concerns over political turmoil and growing budget deficits in Japan increase, the decline of the USDJPY will slow.

Next is an analysis of the USDJPY daily chart.

The pair has been hovering above the 148 yen level, lacking a clear direction. Since this range-bound fluctuation has lasted so long, an uptrend or downtrend will likely intensify once the pair breaks above 149.18 yen or drops below 145.85 yen.

We continue with an analysis of the GBPUSD weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, the pair has been hovering above +1σ. However, the long upper wicks of each candlestick indicate that selling pressure is capping the uptick. Nevertheless, it can be said that the pair is fluctuating steadily. Therefore, it is better to buy on dips unless the pair drops below 145.85 yen.

Political turmoil lingers in France. Prime Minister François Bayrou's cabinet is scheduled to hold a confidence vote on September 8th. If the result augments uncertainty, traders will take a risk-off stance to sell the euro. However, the ECB Governing Council is expected to halt the rate cut at its September 11th meeting. If so, the sell-off of the euro is expected to wane.

Next is an analysis of the EURUSD daily chart.

Although the pair has not moved significantly, it has been edging upward. If it can break above the 1.178 level, the uptrend will intensify.

We continue with an analysis of the EURUSD weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, the pair is moving along the upward +1σ. Additionally, the long lower wicks indicate strong buying pressure for the euro. However, the pair is struggling to reach a new high. Therefore, it would be good to make sure to buy on dips.

The GBPUSD plummeted on September 2nd as the U.K.'s long-term bond yield surged. However, statements by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and U.S. employment figures helped offset the decline. The Starmer Cabinet's policy management is raising concerns over growing budget deficits, leaving the pound vulnerable to a sell-off.

Next is an analysis of the GBPUSD daily chart.

As the middle line is about to flatten, it becomes more difficult to forecast the direction. The daily chart shows that the pair failed to break above the resistance line lying around the 1.360 level. For now, it is important to watch to see if the pair can break above this level.

We continue with an analysis of the GBPUSD weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, although the band width is narrowing, the middle line is maintaining an upward trend. Also, long lower wicks indicate strong buying pressure. If the pair clearly breaks above the 1.360 level, the uptrend will likely intensify.