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2024.06.20

[June 20] Will volatility rise when the U.S. market resumes after the national holiday?

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Recap of previous trading day (June 19)

Yesterday the USDJPY sank to a low of 157.60 shortly after GMT 07:00, but then reversed. On the verge of the close, just after GMT 08:15, it reached a high of 158.13.

Because the U.S. stock market was closed yesterday for a national holiday, the market continued to cruise along with no major change in volatility.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Due in part to it being a so-called "5/10 day" (a date ending in "5" or on a multiple of "10" on which Japanese companies often settle foreign exchange payments), today the USDJPY hit a low of 157.92 just before GMT 00:00, then changed direction and began to rise.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:25 on June 20), the price is moving between the +1 and +2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands, and the middle line is also trending upward.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Current account Q1
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Housing starts (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Housing starts (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Building permits (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Building permits (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week

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