2024.05.15 [May 15] No direction after post-PPI turbulence. Will CPI drive market to new high?

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Recap of previous trading day (May 14)

Yesterday the USDJPY fluctuated wildly during the New York session, with the wicks lengthening at both ends of the candle, at one point hitting a high of 156.77.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) that was announced yesterday came in at 0.5% month on month versus forecasts of 0.3%. The core month-on-month figure was 0.5% against expectations of 0.2%.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

This morning the USDJPY traded around the middle of the 156-yen range. Later on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced at GMT 12:30, so it is likely that volatility will subside until then.

The 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:05 on May 15) shows that while fluctuating wildly the market has lost its sense of direction. Traders should pay careful attention to whether the price goes up another leg after today's CPI.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI, MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Consumer Price Index (Core CPI, MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Consumer Price Index (Core CPI, YoY)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Retail sales (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Retail sales excluding autos (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May New York Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. May NAHB Housing Market Index
  • GMT 20:00 U.S. March Total net TIC flows
  • GMT 20:00 U.S. March Net long-term TIC flows

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