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2024.05.16

[May 16] CPI underperforms expectations month on month, USDJPY plunges into 153-yen range

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Recap of previous trading day (May 15)

Yesterday the USDJPY market was more or less range-bound during the Tokyo session, but after breaking through the low of the day some time after GMT 07:00 the decline accelerated, and just after GMT 12:30 it hit a low of 154.75. Despite a temporary retracement, it then continued to fall.

The month-on-month figure announced yesterday for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. came in at 0.3% compared to a forecast of 0.4%, thus undershooting expectations.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY continued its downward trend in the morning session, at one point hitting a low of 153.59.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:20 on May 16), the price is band walking between the -1 and -2 standard deviations, clearly showing the strength of the downward momentum.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Housing starts (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Housing starts (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Building permits (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Building permits (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 13:15 U.S. April Industrial production (MoM)

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