In the foreign exchange market for the week that ended on August 10th, the dollar weakened due to the previous week's weaker-than-expected U.S. employment figures, which increased speculation about a U.S. interest rate cut. Meanwhile, the pound strengthened against the dollar following the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy decision. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve Board (FRB) executives pushed the USDJPY down. The weakening dollar helped the EURUSD climb and the GBPUSD rebound sharply.

August 4 (Mon)

After falling sharply due to weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data at the end of the previous week, the USDJPY started the weekly trading session by rebounding from the lower 147 yen range to the 148 yen range. However, the pair fell again to as low as 146.86 yen during New York trading hours.

Meanwhile, the EURUSD hovered within the 1.15 range, and the GBPUSD hovered around the 1.33 level.

August 5 (Tue)

The USDJPY fell to the mid-146 yen range after San Francisco FRB President Mary C. Daly suggested the possibility of an accelerated rate cut. Subsequently, the buyback of the dollar lifted the pair to the upper 147 yen range.

The EURUSD fell to the 1.152 range but then came back to the 1.158 range. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD remained almost unchanged at around the 1.33 level.

August 6 (Wed)

Earlier, the USDJPY lacked direction. However, during New York trading hours, comments from Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis FRB, and Lisa D. Cook, member of the Board of Governors, as well as growing concern over the U.S. economic slowdown, triggered a sell-off of the dollar. The pair fell below the 147 yen level.

As the dollar weakened, the EURUSD rose to the 1.16 range, and the GBPUSD advanced to the upper 1.33 range.

August 7 (Thu)

The USDJPY briefly fell below the 147 yen level but fluctuated within the lower 147 yen range throughout the day.

Meanwhile, as expected, the BoE decided to lower the interest rate. However, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's unexpectedly narrow 5-4 vote increased market speculation that it would be difficult for the BoE to make an additional rate cut. As a result, the pound strengthened against the dollar, lifting the GBPUSD to the 1.34 range. The EURUSD rose to touch the 1.169 range.

August 8 (Fri)

The summary of opinions at last month's Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meetings revealed that the central bank was reluctant to an early rate increase. Consequently, the yen was sold, causing the USDJPY to rise to the upper 147 yen range. However, the pair then failed to reach the 148 yen range.

Meanwhile, the EURUSD fluctuated within the 1.16 range, and the GBPUSD remained within the 1.34 range to close the weekly trading session.

August 12 (Tue)

• 12:30 U.S.: July Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• 12:30 U.S.: July Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index)

August 14 (Thu)

• 06:00 U.K.: April-June Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (preliminary GDP)
• 06:00 U.K.: June Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• 09:00 Europe: April-June Quarterly Regional Gross Domestic Product (preliminary regional GDP)
• 23:50 Japan: April-June Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (preliminary GDP)

August 15 (Fri)

• 12:30 U.S.: July Retail Sales
• 12:30 U.S.: July Retail Sales (excluding automotives)

The following currency pair charts are analyzed using an overlay of the ±1σ and ±2σ standard deviation Bollinger Bands, with a 20-period moving average.

As Stephen Miran, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and proponent of monetary easing policies, is expected to join the FOMC, the market is increasing speculation that the U.S. may mark a monetary policy shift. If the July retail sales, due to be announced on August 15th, miss market expectations, speculation about a rate cut will increase.

Next is an analysis of the USDJPY daily chart.

Amid this directionless situation, it is important to monitor whether the pair will break above 148.08 yen or below 145.85 yen to determine its future direction.

We continue with an analysis of the USDJPY weekly chart.

The pair closed last week's trading session with minimal fluctuation, providing little indication of its future direction. If the pair advances to break above the 150.91 yen level, the uptrend will likely continue. On the other hand, if it falls below 145.85 yen, it will likely return to a downtrend.

Following a period during which a strong dollar pushed the EURUSD down, increasing speculation of a U.S. interest rate cut in September and favoring the euro among traders. It is important to keep an eye on U.S. economic indicators related to inflation and consumption in order to predict the future of the pair.

Next is an analysis of the EURUSD daily chart.

After experiencing a sharp drop the previous week, the pair rebounded to break above the middle line. However, increasing selling pressure against the euro hindered its advance to the +1σ level. Additionally, the narrowing spread may lead to a triangle formation on the daily chart. It will be important to monitor whether the pair breaks above the current high or drops below the current low to determine the future direction.

We continue with an analysis of the EURUSD weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, the euro has been weakening against the dollar since the pair reached its annual high. If the pair breaks above +1σ and climbs higher, it will be safe to say that the uptrend will continue.

The GBPUSD kept climbing last week. After last week's Monetary Policy Committee backpedaled on market speculation about an additional rate cut by the BoE, the pound strengthened against the dollar. Weaker-than-expected U.S. employment figures also bolstered the pound against the dollar. As the upward trend paused on August 8th, the dollar's next behavior will determine the pair's future.

Next is an analysis of the GBPUSD daily chart.

The pair has climbed since dropping below -2σ and has now returned above the middle line to close last week's trading session. If the pair breaks above 1.3588, where the most recent downtrend began last month, the uptrend will likely continue.

We continue with an analysis of the GBPUSD weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, increasing buying pressure for the pound has halted the downtrend and pushed the pair up to the middle line. It is now important to monitor whether the pair can break above the 1.3588 level.