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2025.06.27

[June 27] Expectations for dollar weakness remain strong, heavy upside continues

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Recap of previous trading day (June 26)

Yesterday the USDJPY hit a low of 143.75 at GMT 08:30 due to reports that the nomination of the next Fed Chair was being considered in the U.S., which heightened expectations for early rate cuts. After that the price consolidated in the lower 144-yen range, and trading for the day closed at 144.37.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY reached a high of 144.80 around GMT 01:30 before declining, hitting a low of 144.19 around GMT 02:00. As of GMT 04:00 the price is moving around the mid-144-yen range without direction.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on June 27), the price rebounded from 143.75 but was pushed back after reaching +2 standard deviations. The market is in a phase where selling on rebounds is being considered.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Personal Income
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE deflator)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy)

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