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2025.06.26

[June 26] Trump's frustration at Fed Chair leads to rate cut speculation and dollar weakness from declining confidence

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Recap of previous trading day (June 25)

Yesterday the USDJPY hit a low of 144.60 at around GMT 02:00 before rebounding, and reached a high of 145.95 at around GMT 12:00. However, it failed to reach 146 yen and fell back, with trading for the day closing at 145.18.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY hit a low of 144.66 yen at around GMT 02:00 as expectations of a early rate cut heightened following reports that President Trump is considering nominating a new Fed Chair. As of GMT 05:00, the price is consolidating in the upper 144-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:00 on June 26), it failed to break above 146 yen and fell back, entering a phase of selling on rebounds. There is support at 144.5 yen, and the market is focused on whether the price can break below this level.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Real gross domestic product (GDP, final), Q1
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. PCE Price Index (final), Q1
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Core PCE Price Index (final), Q1

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