2025.01.28 [January 28] Risk-averse yen appreciation briefly breaks below 154, but nears complete reversal
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Recap of previous trading day (January 27)
Yesterday the USDJPY reached a high of 156.25 shortly after GMT 06:00, then began to decline. DeepSeek, a Chinese company, announced their AI model, leading to widespread dollar selling. The price reached a low of 153.76 shortly after GMT 11:00.
From the New York session, the decline paused, and trading for the day closing at 154.50.
Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward
Today the USDJPY has risen to the upper-155 range as of GMT 04:00, with views spreading that Bank of Japan rate hikes will be delayed due to Trump tariff concerns.
Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:20 on January 28), it has recovered from its decline and returned to mid-January range. If it falls again, one approach might be to expect a downward trend.
(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)
The main economic indicators for today are as follows:
- U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Day 1
- GMT 13:30 U.S. December durable goods orders
- GMT 14:00 U.S. November Case-Shiller home price index
- GMT 15:00 U.S. January Consumer Confidence Index
- GMT 15:00 U.S. January Richmond Fed manufacturing index
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