2024.10.03 [October 3] Market roars through the high set directly before the "Ishiba Shock"

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Recap of previous trading day (October 2)

Yesterday the USDJPY bottomed right after the market opened at 143.42, then continued to rise. Reports that Prime Minister Ishiba had put the brakes on interest rate rises in a discussion with the Governor of the Bank of Japan were also a factor behind this uptrend.

At GMT 12:15 it was announced that ADP employment figures for September were a strong 143,000 compared to forecasts of 120,000. The market reacted by buying the dollar, resulting in a high of 146.45 yen being achieved shortly after GMT 20:30, and in a daily close of 146.45 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY continued its upward trend of the previous day, reaching a high of 147.23 at around GMT 01:00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:40 on October 3), the rise in the market that has been underway since yesterday has clearly broken above the high set on Friday of last week when the Liberal Democratic Party held its leadership election.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 13:45 U.S. September Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised)
  • GMT 13:45 U.S. September Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised)
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. September ISM Services PMI
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. August Factory Orders (MoM)

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