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2024.09.25

[September 25] Gradual Downtrend with Large Pullbacks

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Recap of previous trading day (September 24)

The USDJPY traded within the 143-yen range until Governor Ueda made remarks indicating continued reluctance toward an early rate hike, sparking a market reaction with yen selling. The pair reached a high of 144.68 after GMT 07:00, but then reversed downward.

At GMT 14:00, the U.S. September Consumer Confidence Index was released, coming in at a weaker-than-expected 98.7 versus a forecast of 104.0. This led to selling of USD, intensifying the downward momentum. By just after GMT 20:00, the USDJPY hit a low of 143.10, closing the day at 143.21.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Partly because today was a so-called "5/10 day" (a date ending in "5" or on a multiple of "10" on which Japanese companies often settle foreign exchange payments), the USDJPY began rising from the opening session. This upward momentum remained strong for some time even after the fixing of the TTM rate at GMT 00:55, and shortly after GMT 02:30 the price reached a high of 143.49.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:35 on September 25), there are large price swings with a downward trendline in place.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 14:00 U.S. July New home sales

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