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2024.04.19

[April 19] News of deterioration in Middle East situation leads to wild fluctuations in USDJPY

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Recap of previous trading day (April 18)

Yesterday the USDJPY opened at 154.33, and hit a low of 153.95 some time after GMT 02:00. After that it rose slowly to reach a high of 154.67 yen just before the close.

Last night initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims for the previous week were announced in the U.S., but these were both more or less in line with market expectations and were not enough to create any major movement in the currency.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

At around GMT 01:00, there were news reports of a large explosion within Iran, and from the middle of the 154-yen range the USDJPY plunged as far as 153.58. The situation was subsequently further complicated by news that there had after all been no major explosion on the Iranian side caused by an attack by Israel.

The USDJPY then rebounded significantly, and after GMT 03:00 it recovered to the 154-yen range, having almost come back to where it had started.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:20 on April 19), we see that the price performed a major overshoot to the downside of the 153.96-level that has functioned as a low several times this week, then retraced its steps.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

No further major economic indicators are scheduled to be announced today.

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