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2024.04.16

[April 16] Better-than-expected retail sales result in breakout to a new high, with USDJPY entering 154-yen range

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Recap of previous trading day (April 15)

Yesterday the USDJPY gapped down 30 pips at the open. However, that gap was filled straight away, and the upward trend continued into the New York session.

The retail sales that were announced at GMT 12:30 came in at 0.7% month on month against a market forecast of 0.3%, while retail sales excluding autos hit 1.1% month on month compared to a market forecast of 0.4%, thus beating expectations. Directly after these figures were announced the USDJPY hit a new high, rising to 154.41 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY traded in the lower end of the 154-yen range, hitting a high of 154.42 at GMT 02:00.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:50 on April 16), the uptrend began with the price breaking out to a new high of 153.96 yen before the London session yesterday, with this line then being converted into support.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. March Housing starts (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. March Housing starts (MoM)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. March Building permits (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. March Building permits (MoM)
  • GMT 13:15 U.S. March Industrial production (MoM)
  • GMT 17:15 U.S. Statements from FRB Chairman Jerome Powell

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