There was a major market move in the USDJPY yesterday, with the price bursting through 153 yen following the announcement of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March at GMT 12:30, which beat expectations. Ultimately, the high for the day was the 153.24 recorded just before the close.

Against a forecast month-on-month change of 0.3% the CPI came in at 0.4%, and in year-on-year terms it hit 3.5% against a forecast of 3.4%, in both cases exceeding market expectations. The Core CPI figure also came in higher than projections.

These CPI results again confirm the ongoing strength of inflationary pressure, and have significantly dampened expectations for interest rate cuts. According to FedWatch, it is almost certain that interest rates will be left unchanged in May. The probability of rates not being changed in June has soared from 37.7% a week ago to 81.4%.

So far today the USDJPY has traded in the upper end of the 152 range after breaking below 153 yen directly after trading began.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:20 on April 11), one can see that not only has the price surged past the previous high but also that the width of the Bollinger Bands has expanded dramatically.

(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

• 12:30 U.S. March Producer Price Index (PPI, MoM)
• 12:30 U.S. March Producer Price Index (PPI, YoY)
• 12:30 U.S. March Producer Price Index (core PPI excluding food and energy, MoM)
• 12:30 U.S. March Producer Price Index (core PPI excluding food and energy, YoY)
• 12:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
• 12:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week