2024.03.28 [March 28] Will we see a correction in the yen following verbal intervention?

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Recap of previous trading day (March 27)

Before midday yesterday the US dollar-Japanese yen rate reached 151.96, a new high for recent trading. After moving sideways for a while, reports emerged after 5 p.m. of a three-party meeting between the Ministry of Finance, the Financial Services Agency, and the Bank of Japan, which sent the currency plummeting. This was followed by verbal intervention, and some time after 8 p.m. the yen hit a low of 151.02.

The market is becoming increasingly wary of a new high triggering currency intervention by the BOJ.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the yen started to rise just after 09:30, hitting a high of 151.54 at around 10:30. However, this was followed by a V-shaped downward reversal, returning the price to more or less the same level at which it had started to increase.

Looking at the 60-minute chart of the yen (as of 13:50 on March 28), the price has inched upwards as if correcting some of yesterday's sudden sell-off.

Both the upper and lower Bollinger Bands have also contracted sharply.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing +1 SD, +2 SD)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • 21:30 U.S. Real gross domestic product (GDP), Q4 (final, % QoQ)
  • 21:30 U.S. PCE Price Index, Q4 (final, % QoQ)
  • 21:30 U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Q4 (final, % QoQ)
  • 21:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
  • 21:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week
  • 22:45 U.S. March Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
  • 23:00 U.S. March Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final
  • 23:00 U.S. February Pending Home Sales (MoM)
  • 23:00 U.S. February Pending Home Sales (YoY)

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