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2025.12.17

[December 17] USDJPY < mid-154 on weak jobs data, mixed outlook

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Recap of previous trading day (December 16)

Yesterday the USDJPY traded firmly with a high of 155.28 shortly after the open. U.S. employment data released at GMT 13:30 showed disappointing average hourly earnings, pushing the pair down to 154.39 yen. However, the overall picture remained inconclusive, and trading for the day closed at 154.70 yen after moving sideways.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY touched a low of 154.56 shortly after GMT 01:00 before bouncing back, then reached a high of 155.02 around GMT 03:00. As of GMT 04:00, it is trading in the upper 154-yen range. Trading activity remains subdued ahead of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, which begins tomorrow.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:50 on December 17), the decline has paused and the pair is moving sideways, making it difficult to identify a clear direction on this timeframe. Sellers appear to be dominant, and a bearish bias looks appropriate as long as the pair stays below 155.39 yen.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today, no closely watched economic indicators are scheduled for release.

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