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2025.10.13

[October 13] Trump tariffs return, USDJPY struggles to recover from sharp drop of over 2 yen, locked in battle near 152-yen range

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Recap of previous trading day (October 10)

On Friday of last week the USDJPY hit a high of 153.27 shortly after GMT 00:00, but weakened as yen buying emerged following Komeito's dissolution of its coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party.

President Trump hinted at a significant tariff increase on Chinese products, prompting markets to become risk averse, and the USDJPY hit a low of 151.15 just before the close, plunging more than 2 yen as trading for the week closed.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Markets at the start of the week gapped up at the open. Buybacks emerged from the previous day's decline, and the pair reached a high of 152.27 shortly after GMT 22:00 (on October 12), but has struggled to extend gains since then, with trading hovering near the 152-yen range as of GMT 04:30.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:20 on October 13), after forming a long upper wick, the market lacks direction on this timeframe. If the downward gap is filled and the pair breaks below 151.15, downward momentum is likely to accelerate further.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today the Japanese and U.S. markets are closed and no major economic indicators are scheduled for release.

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