On Friday of last week the USDJPY reached a high of 149.95 yen around GMT 23:30 (on September 25), extended back toward the high range shortly after GMT 10:30, but failed to reach the 150-yen range and fell back. It hit a low of 149.40 around GMT 15:30 and trading for the week closed at 149.46 yen.

Today the USDJPY saw U.S. Treasury yields decline and risk-averse yen buying as the risk of a U.S. government shutdown increased, hitting a low of 148.88 yen around GMT 03:00. As of GMT 05:00, the pair continues to trade in the upper 148-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:20 on September 29), the pair has shifted from rising to falling and is approaching 148.80 yen, the starting point of the sharp rally. If it breaks below this level, the decline is likely to extend toward 148.5 yen.

(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

• GMT 14:00 U.S. August Pending Home Sales