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2025.09.25

[September 25] Cautious stance on U.S. rate cuts drives dollar buying, approaching the 149-yen range

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Recap of previous trading day (September 24)

Yesterday the USDJPY moved steadily higher throughout the day from shortly after the opening. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on additional easing and strong August new home sales data supported dollar buying. Trading for the day closed at a high of 148.91 shortly after GMT 20:30.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY hit a low of 148.55 around GMT 02:00, and as of GMT 05:00 is trading in the upper 148-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:00 on September 25), the strong upward momentum appears to have stalled and entered a correction phase. If it rebounds and breaks above 149 yen, the upward trend would likely continue.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Real gross domestic product (GDP, final), Q2
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. PCE Price Index (final), Q2
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Core PCE Price Index (final), Q2
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Initial jobless claims for the previous week
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Continuing jobless claims for the previous week

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