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2025.09.03

[September 3] LDP leadership race may be moved up as political uncertainty drives yen weakness toward 149-yen range

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Recap of previous trading day (September 2)

Yesterday the USDJPY declined after comments from the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor reduced expectations for interest rate hikes, hitting a low of 147.04 shortly after GMT 00:30, then moving steadily higher from there. The price rose to 148.94 shortly after GMT 12:30 but failed to reach 149 and pulled back. Trading for the day closed at 148.35 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY continued its yen-selling trend as three senior LDP officials indicated their intention to resign, raising expectations that the leadership race may be moved forward. The price hit a high of 148.92 around GMT 04:00, returning to the previous day's high range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:20 on September 3), the pullback has served as a buying opportunity, with the pair continuing to trade above the middle line. If it clearly breaks above 149 yen, the upward trend is likely to continue.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 14:00 U.S. July JOLTS Job Openings
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. June Factory Orders
  • GMT 18:00 U.S. Regional FRB economic reports (Beige Book)

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