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2025.08.25

[August 25] Dollar plunges on U.S. rate cut expectations, buyback momentum also pauses

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This article was : 

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Recap of previous trading day (August 22)

On Friday of last week the market was awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the U.S. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, but the USDJPY gradually moved higher and reached a high of 148.77 yen around GMT 05:00.

However, following Chairman Powell's remarks, expectations for U.S. rate cuts strengthened, triggering sharp dollar selling. The pair hit a low of 146.57 shortly after GMT 17:00 and trading for the week closed at 146.57 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY saw dollar buybacks following last week's decline, reaching a high of 147.52 yen shortly after GMT 00:30, but stalled there and as of GMT 04:00 is trading somewhat softly in the lower 147-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on August 25), it has recovered from the sharp decline but has entered a phase of selling on rallies, pushed down by selling pressure again. If it fails to break above 147.52 yen, maintaining a bearish stance appears appropriate.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 14:00 U.S. July New home sales

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