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2025.07.31

[July 31] U.S. and Japan hold interest rates steady, driving volatility while markets await next catalyst

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Recap of previous trading day (July 30)

Yesterday the USDJPY saw risk aversion yen buying following an earthquake on Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula, hitting a low of 147.80 shortly after GMT 07:00.

During New York hours, strong ADP employment data and robust Q2 GDP figures, combined with the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady, fueled buying momentum. Trading for the day closed at a high of 149.53 shortly after GMT 20:30.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY found support after the Bank of Japan announced it would maintain current interest rates, hitting a low of 148.58 around GMT 03:00 before the decline subsided. As of GMT 05:00, the pair is trading in the upper 148-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:00 on July 31), the correction from the sharp rally appears to have stabilized, and it seems appropriate to maintain an upward outlook as long as the pair holds above the 148.60 level

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE deflator)
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy)

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