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2025.07.01

[July 1] Dollar falls for sixth consecutive month. View that dollar weakness will continue remains strong.

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Recap of previous trading day (June 30)

Yesterday the USDJPY turned to decline after hitting a high of 144.76 yen shortly after GMT 00:30, and reached a low of 143.78 yen shortly after GMT 07:00. Although it recovered to around the 144.5-yen range, it did not continue to rise, and trading for the day closed at 143.99 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY saw yen buying following good results from the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey for large manufacturing companies, hitting a low of 143.43 yen shortly after GMT 01:00. As of GMT 04:30, the price is moving in the upper 143-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:00 on July 1), it shows a gradual downward trend, and even when there are rebounds, the upside continues to be suppressed, making this a situation where selling on rebounds would be effective.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 13:30 U.S. Statements from FRB Chairman Jerome Powell
  • GMT 13:45 U.S. June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised)
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. May JOLTS Job Openings

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