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2025.05.21

[May 21] Middle East situation and U.S.-China relations risk driving dollar selling toward below 144 yen

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Recap of previous trading day (May 20)

Yesterday the USDJPY reached a high of 145.51 yen shortly after GMT 00:00, then declined, reaching a low of 144.09 yen shortly after GMT 07:30. Although it did not break below 144 yen, it did not fully return to the 145-yen range, and trading for the day closed at 144.50 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY saw dollar selling due to risk aversion following reports that Israel is planning to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and reports that China will take countermeasures against U.S. semiconductor regulations on Chinese products. The price reached a low of 143.72 yen shortly after GMT 03:30.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:30 on May 21), a band walk downward along the -2 standard deviation line has begun to emerge after breaking below 144 yen. The outlook is downward, with the next target likely to be around 143.50 yen.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today, no closely watched economic indicators are scheduled for release.

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