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2025.05.02

[May 2] Expectations of delay to BOJ rate hike push USDJPY near 146 yen as markets await U.S. employment statistics

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Recap of previous trading day (May 1)

Yesterday yen weakening accelerated following the Bank of Japan's announcement to hold interest rates around GMT 03:00 and comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda during his press conference starting at GMT 06:30, which suggested that additional rate hikes would be delayed.

The strong results from the U.S. April ISM Manufacturing Index released at GMT 14:00 further encouraged dollar buying, reaching a high of 145.73 yen shortly after GMT 18:00, and trading for the day closed at 145.32 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the USDJPY reached a high of 145.92 yen around GMT 00:30 and then paused, and as of GMT 05:00, it is trading in the lower 145-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 05:00 on May 2), while the upward momentum has paused, the upward trend appears likely to continue as long as it doesn't fall below 145.20. If it breaks above 146 yen, it's likely to aim straight for 147 yen.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

The main economic indicators for today are as follows:

  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Nonfarm payrolls
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Unemployment rate
  • GMT 12:30 U.S. April Average hourly earnings
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. March Factory Orders

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