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2025.03.04

[March 4] Trade war and Ukraine situation: Risks flare up again without time to settle

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Recap of previous trading day (March 3)

Yesterday the USDJPY reached the 149 yen level around GMT 09:00, then rose to a high of 151.30 yen around GMT 12:00, but subsequently turned downward.

Following the weak results of the February ISM Manufacturing PMI released at GMT 15:00, and President Trump's statement about imposing further tariffs on countries like China and Japan, the price fell sharply, reaching a low of 149.10 yen around GMT 20:30, and trading for the day closed at this low.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

Today the yen strengthened due to risk aversion after reports emerged that the U.S. would completely halt military support to Ukraine. After reaching a low of 148.60 yen around GMT 01:30, it stabilized, and as of GMT 05:00, it is trading in the low 149-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 04:00 on March 4), it shows a downward band walk, touching -1 standard deviations before falling again. The downward trend appears likely to continue.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today, no highly influential economic indicators are scheduled for release.

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