2024.11.05 [November 5] The USDJPY decline pauses. Will there be a gap fill before the presidential election results?

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Recap of previous trading day (November 4)

Yesterday the USDJPY saw progressive dollar selling following reports of Harris's lead. It reached a high of 152.52 yen directly after the open, and fell below 152 yen around GMT 0:00. Around GMT 06:30 it recovered to the lower half of the 152-yen range but fell again, hitting a low of 151.53 yen after GMT 10:30, before finding support in the mid-151 yen range and closing at 152.12 yen.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

As a so-called "5/10 day" (a date ending in "5" or on a multiple of "10" on which Japanese companies often settle foreign exchange payments), today the USDJPY has risen despite pushback, and as of GMT 04:00 is trading in the lower half of the 152-yen range.

Looking at the 1-hour chart (as of GMT 03:50), the price is trading between +1 standard deviation and +2 standard deviation, having crossed above the upwardly trending middle line. If the movement to fill the gap continues beyond the previous day's high of 152.52 yen, we might see levels above 153 yen.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 13:30 U.S. September Trade balance
  • GMT 15:00 U.S. October ISM Services PMI

Today is the U.S. presidential election. Voting will begin sequentially from GMT 11:00 Japan time, with vote counting starting from the evening.

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