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2024.05.01 [May 1] Price continues to rise sluggishly after currency intervention. Attention shifts to ADP, JOLTS, and FOMC

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Recap of previous trading day (April 30)

The currency intervention that took place at the start of the week continued to weigh heavily on the USDJPY, which rose sluggishly throughout trading yesterday. With the market having opened at 156.33 yen and closed at 157.79 yen, volatility was around 140 pips.

The U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index (quarter on quarter) that was announced yesterday came in at 1.2%, compared to expectations of 1.0%.

Recap of the Tokyo market and outlook going forward

In the first half of today's Tokyo session, the USDJPY continued its leisurely rise in an extension of the previous day's trend. As of GMT 03:00, it had hit a high of 157.89 yen, putting the 158-yen level within reach if it continues on this trajectory.

The 1-hour chart of the USDJPY (as of GMT 03:00 on May 1), shows the price band-walking cleanly along the upper band.

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(20-period Bollinger Band, showing ±1 and ±2 standard deviations)

Today's main economic indicators are as follows.

  • GMT 12:15 U.S. April ADP employment change (MoM)
  • GMT 13:45 U.S. April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised)
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • GMT 14:00 U.S. March JOLTS Job Openings
  • GMT 18:00 U.S. Announcement on interest rates after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
  • GMT 18:30 U.S. Regular press conference with FRB Chairman Jerome Powell

With the ADP and JOLTS serving as a prelude to Friday's employment figures, and the FOMC after that, there is a throng of important indicators jostling for attention.

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